港股异动 | 石油股早盘回暖 关税风险引发原油价格短期下跌 机构指国内油企自身有望弱化油价敏感性

智通财经
08 Apr

智通财经APP获悉,石油股早盘回暖,截至发稿,中海油服(02883)涨3.23%,报5.43港元;中海油(00883)涨3.84%,报16.22港元;上海石油化工股份(00338)涨2.75%,报1.12港元;中石油(00857)涨0.56%,报5.35港元。

消息面上,4月7日,WTI原油期货继续下跌,一度跌破60美元/桶关口,为2021年4月以来的最低水平,布伦特原油期货一度跌破64美元/桶关口。南华期货表示,短期特朗普关税引发的对系统性风险担忧和OPEC增产态度利空油价,引发短期价格大跌。供给端,3月份OPEC+产量稳定,增量部分主要源于哈萨克斯坦,缩量部分主要来源于伊朗和委内瑞拉,OPEC+确定5月份增产41万桶/天超出市场预期,其目的旨在促进补偿性检查落地。在需求端,全球炼化利润小幅回升,中国利润被动修复,因全球炼厂检修较多,短期需求端疲软,中期随着消费旺季来临,中期需求或有提振。

平安证券认为,美国宣布全面征收“对等关税”,市场对贸易战升级后全球经济放缓的担忧加剧,油价面临较大下行压力;此外,OPEC+决定自5月起增产41.1万桶/日,增产量远超此前市场预期,全球原油供应趋于过剩的压力进一步加剧。虽然油价面临继续下跌风险,但国内油企通过上下游一体化布局和油气来源多元化降低了业绩对油价的敏感性,并加速在国内挖掘海上油气资源等降低能源对外依存度,建议关注盈利韧性相对强的“三桶油”。

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