金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，极兔速递(01519)1Q25的运营数据强劲，包裹量平均增长31%。在分析师简报会上，极兔表示有信心今年能够实现包裹量增长和成本削减目标。首季主要亮点为：东南亚地区包裹发货量同比增长50%，得益于提前斋戒月。中国地区包裹发货量同比增长27%至49亿件。新市场销量同比增长19%至7,700万辆。增长主要来自巴西和墨西哥市场。尽管如此，该行将2025/26年的盈利预测分别下调了-48%/-18%，主要由于该行担心中国的主要快递企业引导的大幅降价将抵消公司快速增长的包裹量。然而，鉴于极兔在东南亚市场的强大竞争优势，该行仍然看好其发展方向。该行把基于分部加总法的目标价从10港元下调至6.9港元, 主要由于盈利下调加上较保守的目标估值倍数。维持买入评级。
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