Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG and CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA are the major operators in the fast-casual restaurant space. Both companies focus on health-conscious, customizable meal offerings and have substantial brand loyalty. However, with market volatility adding pressure, which stock offers the better value and more upside potential at present?

Factors to Consider for CMG

Chipotle operates its restaurants across the United States, Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Kuwait and the UAE. The company has long been a pioneer in serving superior quality ingredients, including the use of local and organically grown produce, dairy from cows raised on pasture and meat from animals raised without hormones or antibiotics. Chipotle continues to emphasize the quality of food, including food with integrity standards, fresh preparation (utilizing classic cooking techniques), customization, generous portions, convenience and speed.

CMG is also focusing on expanding its digital program to drive growth. Digitization has also enhanced its delivery system. Partnerships with Uber Eats and Grubhub are attracting customers. The company has also expanded its digital capabilities into Canada. Collaboration with all the major third-party delivery aggregators has increased orders. In 2024, digital sales represented 35.1% of total food and beverage revenues. The company focuses on improving order accuracy and timing for its digital business.

Chipotle is also banking on expansion efforts to drive growth. In 2024, the company opened 304 restaurants, with 257 locations having a Chipotlane. CMG expects to open 315-345 restaurants in 2025, with more than 80% of the openings including a Chipotlane.

On the flip side, Chipotle sources about 50% of its avocados from Mexico, along with other related products used in Mexican cuisine, which is roughly 2% of its sales. Also, it sources 0.5% of its sales from Canada and China. The recent tariff war is likely to put pressure on the company.

Factors to Consider for CAVA

CAVA continues to thrive on technological-driven innovation, expansion efforts and menu innovation.

The company’s investment in technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing its operational efficiency and customer experience. CAVA is expanding its AI-powered video technology to more locations in 2025, optimizing kitchen operations and streamlining service. Additionally, a new kitchen display system has been implemented to improve digital order accuracy and efficiency, with plans to roll it out to 250 restaurants.

CAVA has continued its aggressive expansion efforts, increasing its market penetration and brand recognition. In 2024, the company opened 58 net new restaurants. It reached a milestone with its entry into Chicago, marking its presence in the Midwest. In 2025, the company plans to open restaurants in Detroit, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. With an expected 62-66 restaurant openings this year, CAVA is poised to capitalize on its growing customer base and demonstrate its scalability across diverse markets.

Menu innovation remains a key driver of CAVA’s market differentiation and customer appeal. The company plans to continue introducing the latest menu items that cater to evolving consumer tastes, reinforcing its brand relevance and competitive edge in the industry.

However, ongoing tariff uncertainties, high costs and a broader economic environment are concerning for the company.

How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CMG & CAVA?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 11.1% and 14.3%, respectively. However, earnings estimate revisions for 2025 have witnessed downward revisions of 1.6% in the past 30 days.
 

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 24.1% and 33.3%, respectively. Earnings estimates for 2025 have witnessed upward revisions of 3.7% in the past 30 days.

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Price Performance & Valuation

The CAVA stock has jumped 38.4% in the past year, outpacing its industry’s dip of 2.9% and the S&P 500's 3.7% decline. Conversely, CMG shares have declined 14.9% in the same time frame.

Price Performance

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CAVA is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 8.4X, below its median of 10.94X over the last year. CMG’s forward sales multiple sits at 5.3X, below its median of 6.35X over the same time frame.

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Conclusion

Both Chipotle and CAVA are strong players in the fast-casual space, offering customizable, health-focused menus and strong brand loyalty. While Chipotle remains a proven leader with an established international footprint and a mature digital strategy, CAVA is gaining momentum through bold expansion, technology integration and ongoing menu innovation. Chipotle’s stability and scale make it a solid long-term hold, but near-term headwinds and slowing earnings momentum suggest limited upside for now. Ongoing tariff uncertainties and a broader economic environment remain concerning for both companies. 

In contrast, CAVA’s accelerating growth, tech-driven efficiencies and rising earnings outlook make it the more compelling stock at this stage. Both CAVA and CMG carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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