Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Iluka Resources Limited (ASX:ILU) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
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Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
As you can see below, at the end of December 2024, Iluka Resources had AU$250.6m of debt, up from AU$139.5m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have AU$136.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$114.6m.
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Iluka Resources had liabilities of AU$317.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of AU$1.06b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$136.0m as well as receivables valued at AU$290.7m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling AU$954.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of AU$1.50b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Iluka Resources' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
View our latest analysis for Iluka Resources
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Iluka Resources has net debt of just 0.23 times EBITDA, suggesting it could ramp leverage without breaking a sweat. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. It is just as well that Iluka Resources's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 32% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Iluka Resources can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts .
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Iluka Resources recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
To be frank both Iluka Resources's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Iluka Resources's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Iluka Resources you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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