金吾财讯 | 百威亚太(01876)早盘股价表现疲软，截至发稿，报8.22港元，跌4.97%，成交额1.17亿港元。消息面上，建银国际预计其2025年一季度在中国维持低库存状态，可能导致批发渠道销量同比出现个位数中段下滑。基于销量下降及产品组合不利变化，该行预计西区亚太收入将下降10.4%（销量/均价分别下降9.0%/1.5%）。不过，尽管2025年一季度表现疲软，但不会改变该行关于销量自3月起环比改善的预测，在中国市场尤其如此，支撑因素包括低基数效应及百威亚太重夺市场份额的策略。该行维持目标价9.50港元及“跑赢大市”评级。另外，摩通认为，尽管百威亚太面临挑战，但韩国市场的坚韧表现和中国市场复苏预期已在股价中得到体现。自年初以来，百威亚太股价累计上涨25%，预测市盈率从13.5倍上升至19倍，反映了市场对中国经济复苏的预期。因此，摩根大通认为当前股价已合理反映这些因素，决定维持“中性”评级。
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