Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares jumped more than 15% on Wednesday after President Trump said he would pause most tariffs for 90 days. But while the White House floated the idea that Apple could shift iPhone production to the U.S., analysts say that move could come with a huge price tag.
Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan said it's technically doable but not without consequences. In a note to clients, Mohan estimated that simply relocating assembly to the U.S. would drive up costs by 25% due to higher labor expenses. Add in potential reciprocal tariffs on imported components, and the price of an iPhone could climb by more than 90%.
Mohan, who holds a Buy rating on Apple and a $250 price target, based his analysis on the iPhone 16 Pro Max. He pointed out that while final assembly might be possible domestically, much of the iPhone's complex supply chain still depends on parts made and pre-assembled overseas especially in China.
Even with Apple's ongoing push to diversify production across countries like India, Vietnam, and Brazil, most of those locations have also been swept up in new tariffs. That leaves Apple in a tricky spot if tensions between the U.S. and China continue.
Needham analysts have warned that without an exemption, Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings could take a hit of 28% or more due to the escalating trade war.
Apple is set to report its Q2 earnings on May 1, with Wall Street expecting $1.61 per share on $94.04 billion in revenue.
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