恢复美国宏观基准预测特朗普宣布暂停执行针对具体国家的“对等”关税90天。此前所有关税以及对等关税中10%的最低部分得以保留，而且高盛预计未来还将出台行业关税。综合来看，这些关税加总起来可能接近高盛此前预测的15个百分点的实际关税税率升幅。因此，恢复之前的非衰退基准预测，即：预计美国2025年四季度/四季度GDP增速为0.5%，核心PCE通胀率峰值为3.5%，衰退概率为45%，美联储将在6月、7月和...
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