US LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April
US gas output on track to slide in April from March record
US gas inventories on track for rare build in March
By Scott DiSavino
April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for mild weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Analysts also noted gas prices were following other energy futures lower on worries U.S. President Donald Trump's on-again off-again trade tariff uncertainty would reduce economic growth and demand for energy around the world.
Gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.5 cents, or 3.0%, to $3.701 per million British thermal units at 8:51 a.m. EDT (1251 GMT).
In addition, the price decline came ahead of a federal report expected to show utilities added more gas to inventories last week than usual for this time of year as mild weather kept gas demand low.
Analysts projected utilities added 50 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended April 4.
That compares with an increase of 16 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 17 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
Traders noted that mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time ever for that month.
Gas stockpiles remained about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, down from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.7 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary six-week low of 103.4 bcfd on Thursday due primarily to normal spring pipeline maintenance in Texas and other parts of the country. Analysts said preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Looking forward, analysts noted the roughly 15% drop in U.S. crude CLc1 futures over the past six days to a four-year low earlier this week could prompt energy firms to start cutting back on oil drilling. O/R
Any reduction in oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota could cut gas output associated with that oil production.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near-normal through April 25.
With seasonally mild weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 108.1 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in April, up from a monthly record high of 15.8 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 17.2 bcfd on Wednesday, up from a daily record of 16.7 bcfd on Tuesday, with gas flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana hitting an all-time high of 2.4 bcfd.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading near a six-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at a seven-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 4 Forecast | Week ended Mar 28 Actual | Year ago Apr 4 | Five-year average Apr 4 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +50 | +29 | +16 | +17 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,823 | 1,773 | 2,280 | 1,870 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -2.5% | -4.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.86 | 3.93 | 1.79 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.37 | 10.66 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.69 | 12.77 | 10.06 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 147 | 160 | 126 | 165 | 160 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 36 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 30 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 182 | 192 | 161 | 198 | 190 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 105.9 | 101.9 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.8 | 8.4 | 7.9 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.0 | 114.2 | 113.8 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.8 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.7 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 12.1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 26.8 | 26.7 | 24.2 | 28.8 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.2 | 24.0 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 78.2 | 83.4 | 75.3 | 83.8 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 104.3 | 108.1 | 100.3 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 90 | 91 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 89 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 90 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 11 | Week ended Apr 4 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.42 | 3.85 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.16 | 3.78 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.54 | 2.69 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.96 | 3.14 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.28 | 3.49 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.52 | 4.27 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.77 | 2.95 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.25 | 1.48 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.62 | 1.67 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 46.65 | 50.89 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 51.70 | 70.41 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 33.68 | 27.83 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 30.85 | 29.79 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 13.84 | 12.77 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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