金吾财讯 | 中信证券研报指,2025年1~2月全社会用电同比增长1.3%,增速平淡主要原因为冬季气温偏暖以及去年闰年导致的高基数效应,二产、三产及居民用电增速均环比下降;高耗能地区及沿海地区用电增速环比均小幅下滑。供给端,火电及核电投资显著加速,电网端则延续2024年以来的强劲增长态势,投资金额同比增速达33.5%;对比2024年数据,火电及核电投资显著加速,但电源端投资增速整体放缓;电网端延续2024年以来的强劲增长态势,投资增速创近4年以来的新高。装机增长、需求平缓使得1~2月火电利用小时数同比下降9.4%,风电光伏消纳率持续小幅下滑。该行建议聚焦四条主线——水电及核电等长久期资产,充分受益利率和回报预期下行;港股低估值绿电,估值具有安全边际且存在政策改善预期;具有资源禀赋优势或商业模式优势的精选细分,如海风、煤电一体化等;受益数字化和新型电力系统日益融合的新场景及新模式,如虚拟电厂、微电网、综能服务、功率预测等。
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