MW Fed's Williams' new economic forecast suggests recession is possible
New York Fed President John Williams on Friday said that the unemployment rate could rise from its current level of 4.2% to between 4.5%-5% over the next year given the combined effects of uncertainty and the increases in tariffs announced by the White House.
Although Williams did not mention a recession, embedded in his forecast is the possibility that the increase in unemployment could breach the Sahm rule.
While not a hard and fast rule, former Fed staffer Claudia Sahm highlighted a statistical regularity showing that an increase in unemployment of 50 basis points or more is typically followed by a larger increase in the unemployment rate and a recession.
-Greg Robb
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 11, 2025 11:08 ET (15:08 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.