金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，重卡新能源化进展如火如荼，趋势明确不可逆。但现有主流的纯电动重卡受限于续航里程限制，主要在短途和特定场景下渗透，中长距离场景的新能源化仍待开拓。复盘乘用车新能源化进程，混动车型于纯电车型普及后两年开始加速渗透，该行认为混动也将成为重卡新能源化的最后一块拼图。混动重卡在政策大力支持的新能源重卡范畴内、且在中长距离运输场景中满足高效运输需求，经济性表现远超柴油重卡、且混动技术已较为成熟，该行认为其已具备大范围商业化基础。该行预计2024/2025/2026年的混动重卡渗透率分别为1%、5%、10%。
中长期来看，该行认为混动重卡将在重载工程车和丘陵、山区长途运输领域（销量占比40%以上）快速渗透，该行预计2030年混动重卡市场占比有望达到30%。在重卡新能源化的过程中，率先推出最佳混动解决方案的企业有望在重卡新能源化的新格局下确立明确的竞争优势。
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