金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，一季度土地市场“地王”潮时隔多年再现，核心城市热度回升，同时头部房企拿地集中度也持续提升，验证该行强调的“好信用、好城市、好产品”的“三好”逻辑。该行看好重点城市区域市场的量价回升，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新获取资源的房企的估值修复，同时业绩与现金流稳健的物管公司亦有望受益于市场止跌回稳。该行认为本轮“地王”频现是供需两端共同促成的结果。供给端，多年“断供”的核心城市部分板块恢复供地叠加政府在限价、容积率等政策方面进行优化。需求端，房企上半年补货动力强、拿地战略趋同触发“抢筹”现象，同时好房子理念+改善型需求释放也打开房企的价格预期。即便此次地王们刷新了所属区县成交楼面均价，但其“面粉”价格普遍未超过“面包”价格。据该行统计，约三分之二项目按当前房价可以实现一定盈利，而剩余三分之一项目未来形成产品后，需要在当前房价基础上再增加5-20%左右则可实现盈利。但在好房子理念引领，改善型需求释放，好产品稀缺的板块中，这些“地王”本身的目标或就是打开好房子价格的天花板。
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