金吾财讯 | 哔哩哔哩(BILI)盘前涨超9%，截至发稿，报16.29美元。浦银国际发研报指，预计哔哩哔哩一季度广告收入同比增长20%，持续跑赢大盘，效果广告仍将快速增长。目前，广告加载率约为6%，考虑到在搜索、热搜等多场景广告模式，仍有很大提升空间。全年来看，广告业务收入或保持双位数增长。游戏方面，仍然重点关注《三国：谋定天下》(《三谋》)表现。受低基数红利影响，游戏4Q24收入同比增长79%，该影响将持续至上半年(《三谋》于2024年6月13日上线)。《三谋》于2月22日开启S6新赛季，该行预计游戏收入今年一季度同比增长70%。该行续指，公司在业绩会上重申中长期毛利率或达40%~45%，调整后OPM目标为15%~20%。相对于4Q24调整后OPM约6%而言，仍有10+百分点上升空间。除经营杠杆(三费基本进入相对稳定状态)外，收入结构变化将是利润率变化的主要驱动(高毛利的游戏和广告收入占比提升)，尤其是《三谋》的表现。此外，考虑到蛇年春晚投放的一次性影响，一季度利润率或出现环比下滑，二季度或有较大幅度改善。
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