金吾财讯 | 第一上海发研报指，紫金矿业(02899)2025年一季度公司实现营业收入7893亿元，同环比分别增加5.6%/7.8%；归母净利润102亿元，同环比分别增加62.4%/32.2%。一季度铜金量价齐升，带动公司业绩再创历史新高。得益于一季度有色金属价格高位运行，铜/金/银/锌销售单价分别为62030/641.51/5.5/15018元,同比分别增加17%/40%/40%/23%；一季度公司矿产品铜/金/银/锌毛利率分别达到61.14%/60.86%/63.68%/31.71%，均实现明显提升。随着黄金需求大幅增加，金价进入上涨通道，公司黄金业务将为公司业绩提供充足增量。该行表示，公司资产分布全球各地，52%的利润来自于海外。2024年同时公司资源储量大幅增长，黑龙江铜山铜矿新增铜资源量365万吨；新并购加纳和秘鲁金矿分别贡献金资源量89吨和188吨。截至2024年年底，公司铜、金、锌、碳酸锂权益资源量分别为8518万吨/3484吨/1132万吨/1432万吨，资源储量在全球名列前茅。公司全球资产的分散布局有效降低地缘风险对公司利润的影响，丰富的资源储备支撑公司长久发展。该行续指，未来公司矿山产量逐步释放，叠加黄金价格继续走高，黄金利润贡献将大幅增加。公司作为世界级矿企价值低估具备修复空间。该行分别调整2025-2027年归母净利润预测至404亿/453亿/495亿元，上调目标价至24.27港元，对应2025年15倍PE，维持买入评级。
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