Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:GRMN) shareholders have seen the share price descend 11% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. In fact, the share price is 131% higher today. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
Since it's been a strong week for Garmin shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.
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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Garmin managed to grow its earnings per share at 7.9% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 18% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Garmin's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Garmin's TSR for the last 5 years was 159%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's nice to see that Garmin shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 21% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Garmin that you should be aware of before investing here.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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