智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，上调阿里巴巴-W(09988)2025财年盈测0.1%，同时下调其2026-2027财年盈测分别0.2%及0.4%。基于SOTP估值，下调集团港股目标价1.3%，由171.3港元降至169.1港元，维持“跑赢大市”评级不变。
该行最新预测，2025财年第四财季收入同比增长6.5%至2360亿元人民币，经调整EBITA同比增长34%至322亿元人民币，经调整EBITA利润率同比增长2.8个百分点为13.6%，经调整净利润则为310亿元人民币。淘宝天猫集团方面，受惠于8.1%的CMR增长，该行预计其于第四财季收入同比增长5.5%至980亿元人民币。同时预期，客户管理收入(CMR)将继续超越商品交易总额(GMV)的增长。在利润率方面，由于竞争减缓以及集团更严格的销售与行销支出，该行预期淘宝天猫集团(TTG)经调整EBITA增长2.4%至394亿元人民币，经调整EBITA利润率为40.1%，较去年同期下降1.2个百分点。
另外，由于DeepSeek带动强劲的外部需求，该行预计阿里巴巴2025年第四财季的云收入将从上一季的13%加速至18%。人工智能资本支出增加将导致折旧加速，但该行表示，仍相信营运效率改善将成为减缓因素，对利润率的影响可控。因此，该行预测集团财季内云业务经调整EBITA利润率为9%，较上财季降9.9%。
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