Recent ‘death crosses’ have painted a mixed picture about where the S&P 500 might be heading next

The S&P 500 tallied its first “death cross” in three years on Monday, even as stocks finished higher.

The S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone on Monday, even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound.

Once the closing bell had rung, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average of an asset or index dips below its 200-day moving average. Technical analysts typically interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend.

As U.S. stocks have struggled in 2025, a death cross has already appeared for the small-cap Russell 2000 index. Shares of Tesla Inc. have flashed this pattern as well.

But investors shouldn’t necessarily be too worried. While history shows that further declines have typically followed previous death crosses for the index, the pain is often short-lived. The S&P 500 has, on average, traded higher three months, six months and 12 months later, data show.

According to Paul Ciana, chief technical strategist at BofA Securities, the signals from past S&P 500 death crosses have been inconclusive overall. One critical tell will be whether the 200-day moving average at the close has fallen over the past five trading days. If it has, it could signal that stocks have more room to drift lower in the immediate future.

That could send a clear signal that the index would likely retest its 2025 low from last week, according to Ciana.

Others offered a more optimistic spin. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said his research shows that death crosses are lagging indicators. Instead of promising more losses, they tend to signal that a “snapback” rally is likely in store.

According to Dow Jones data, more recent death crosses have painted a mixed picture about where the S&P 500 might be heading next. The index was lower one year after its most recent death cross on March 14, 2022. But stocks were up by 50% over the same time frame following the death cross on March 30, 2020.

U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, although major indexes finished below their highs from earlier in the session. The S&P 500 was up 0.8% at the closing bell, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished in the green.