From April 6 to April 9, Web3 Carnival was held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. As a highly anticipated event in the industry, this carnival brought together the top players in the global Web3 field. Looking at the live photos shared by attendees, compared to the bustling crowds of previous years, this year's conference seems to be noticeably more deserted.

However, the conference still had no shortage of true builders, and the density of core industry participants was even higher than in previous years. The topics covered not only regulation, technical infrastructure and public chain ecosystems, AI, Depin, RWA, Payfi, crypto finance, and other Web3 industry focuses but also spanned diverse fields such as Web2 to Web3, traditional finance, academic institutions, security privacy, interactive entertainment, and industrial-level application implementation. Moreover, the 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, following the four seasons as its framework, interpreted the essence of Web3 spirit through Chinese traditional poetry imagery, showcasing a unique narrative of the fusion of technology and humanities.

BlockBeats selected four reflections from participants, covering market sentiment, technology trends, investment directions, and more. The full reprints are as follows:

Fourteenth Lord

Original Title "Looking Back on These Three Years at the Hong Kong Carnival: Enthusiasm, Disillusionment, and Crossover"

This is a short essay on the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival. It may sound a bit harsh, but I want to talk about those past events and why they have been debunked.

1. Is the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival Cold?

Cold, that was also the initial impression of many. The previous conferences were packed with people, moving forward in clusters. However, this time it was almost all familiar project teams, the VIP room was empty, there weren't many people attending the exhibition, where will the liquidity and creativity come from later? But there were more people in suits, and the underlying logic of the industry seems to be undergoing a reconstruction.

The sense of emptiness came from various sources. Some said the layout of the venue was very strange, making it look deserted. Some said the preparation by Wanxiang was insufficient, making it hard to invite guests, lacking project teams, and even the price for on-stage speeches has returned to a calm state. Some voices seem more like a proof of existence, saying, "I'm still alive, just not dead."

In my view, the relationship between the East and the West is still like a warm face pressed against a cold butt. There were significantly fewer Western faces. Even after three years in the Web3 field (perhaps in many other fields as well). Even if Vitalik was present in person, besides the fan selfies, the rest was the one-sided responsibility of certain baldies who played the industry's leading clowns.

Deep-rooted are the differences in culture and pursuit. Those who only treat the achievements of web3 as a casino, wielding screenshots of snagging three bananas in each cycle, shaping the overall direction, to build more slot machines, lure more gamblers, and siphon off the acquisition efforts of builders.

The Western public blockchains collectively appeal to the East, but mostly when you are a user, not a partner. Is it that others are not playing along, or is there an issue with oneself? Or is the pursuit itself not a common ground, while still expecting to play together?

2. Is RWA the Right Path?

Every keynote speech, more than half are superficial, when will the content catch up with the titles they choose?

RWA is the mainstream narrative this year, but does it have a significant difference in underlying logic from the NFTs three years ago, the inscriptions two years ago, or the memes one year ago? If you carefully examine the underlying basis of each cycle, you will find that once everything enters a macro perspective, it will all eventually be deemed correct and righteous. RWA is also just a new wrapper topic for the macro perspective.

However, in reality, grand narratives often tend to unlimitedly overlook the rights of thousands of individuals, giving a feeling of being "cattle of the world," or sometimes not even cattle but merely digits. Seizing a mainstream narrative can certainly lead to takeoff. Phantom seized the SOL and meme airdrop, Bitget seized the TG ecosystem, embracing multi-chain + annual narratives, resulting in significant annual growth for them.

But in this industry, achieving growth has never been difficult; retention is challenging (having resources and momentum in place will create a flywheel effect compared to the explosive growth of traditional Internet). The things done with blockchain are still limited and basically not daily necessities. Even after the wallet wars of the past, even Unisat, which was hottest last year, hasn't been opened for a long time, and there is no need to open it, just adding to the sadness.

The institutions of RWA are also facing the PPT scam of the Web2 elite halo from the last narrative wave, where each person incessantly talks about "empowering the ecosystem" but has never used a wallet. Interestingly, BTC events don't care about narratives, which gives hope because those chasing narratives generally can't catch up, and those creating narratives have a chance to turn the tables.

3. Is V Still Okay?

What kind of conspiracy is most terrifying to ponder on? I think, it's turning the essence of tragedy into a choice trap, whether it is the burning self-destruction or the decaying slow suicide, the most frightening thing is that, no matter which path you choose, it will add shackles to the exploration on the other path. V is already standing on a difficult multiple-choice question, and no matter the choice made, it cannot escape personal or collective tragedy.

Indeed, V is a genius, V's work ethic is also top-notch in the industry, and V is very young. When it comes to the future of Ethereum, the biggest opportunity lies in the young mind and vision, bringing forth unlimited potential for growth. However, behind any characteristic lies a disadvantage. Being 30 years old comes with its own drawbacks, as one can be too easily surrounded by petty people and trapped in the sweetness of words.

In every speech at various events, V is fully betting on L2, which is quite reasonable and has plenty of logically consistent reasons. One of the excellent reasons is that the EF excels in layer 1 rather than layer 2. While V has boundless creativity on layer 1, connecting to layer 2 requires partners to step in. However, the EF's cake is already divided, so why not leave a vacant spot as a platform and welcome each project to bring its own resources? The EF gives you all the recognition you desire.

But who conveyed these reasons to V? Why did they become his entrenched scaling direction? If layer 1 itself is good enough, why the need for an empty castle in layer 2? What about the gap between different layer 2 solutions? In the next phase of EF’s upgrade, returning to the layer 1 experience, the most significant resistance may not come from layer 1 itself but from layer 2s. This is the current trap of choice.

4. Web3 + Gaming Unwillingness but a Trap

Attending dozens of events before and after this conference, it was the web3 gaming conferences that dared to speak out the most, perhaps because there are not many people, so there is more grounded insight, spoken out in a down-to-earth manner. I originally entered the industry because of loot, Axie Infinity, and sneaker flipping, but now everyone has awakened—players, investors—except for the die-hard beliefs. Those still involved here can only console themselves: ecosystem positioning, defensive position, cost considerations.

Formerly, gaming had countless good reasons to become a good business and even three years ago, game licensing control was the opportunity for the explosion of web3 games. The hardware requirements of games are naturally different from other financial scenarios, so public chains for web3 gaming have always been a persistent direction.

However, from play-to-earn, on-chain, to Telegram games, they have all turned into traps. Because in the blockchain circle making games, the dopamine reward is actually not as good as forging rune stones. During the rune forging, everyone naturally waking up at 6 AM during peak excitement, finding it hard to fall asleep at 3 AM. Which game can have a purer, more direct core incentive that is more effective? But without attracting new users to each other, it’s all about gaming each other to inflate high data and deceive investors. It used to be just falsifying financial data, and now it is even colluding in joint audits for deception. Even those who invest in web3 games themselves do not play the games but have only played Contra.

The cryptocurrency community should focus on decentralized finance (DeFi) and avoid getting involved in gaming. Meanwhile, game companies see Web3 as a new field for developing games, evolving from Perfect World to Korean gaming conglomerates, and then to the Western metaverse grand narrative, all lingering in the wasteland left behind by the blockchain gaming endeavors. Throughout, it's been these 1 million users who have been spoiled: they won't play if it's not on the blockchain, and if it is, they will only engage with the financial aspects. Since they want to engage with financial aspects, they might as well play with memes.

If you try to onboard external users to the blockchain from scratch, you might wonder, why bother? Educating reluctant users—who would be willing to do that? However, gaming itself is indeed a lucrative business. Even if miHoYo provided only peripheral services, it increased their total revenue by 10%, but the gross profit margin in this area could reach 70%.

Currently, it's difficult to find a team in the market that's focused on making profits solely from gaming. Gaming, as a product that provides emotional value, generates value even in the process. This is in contrast to many on-chain products that are purely results-driven (like struggling public blockchains that lose all their value if nobody uses them).

Therefore, gaming will continue to attract some persistent investors. With 600 million active addresses, many believe this is like the Internet in 1994. They keep accumulating, believing the deeper the manure, the sweeter the flowers.

5. Is the Bear Market Coming?

In recent years, we have seen relatively bearish but not the most bearish times, as well as the most breakthrough moments. Each narrative's period of confusion seems to revolve around events like Hong Kong conferences. After last year's Bitcoin Asia event, things cooled off. As the market cools, project teams face more pressure, leading to more irrational operations that make it harder to think rationally. The conference this time has a familiar lineup, but the projects have undergone 2-3 cycles of changes. While serial entrepreneurs are often mocked, they are even more valuable.

Those familiar with cycles know: the bear market is the Builder's opportunity. Only those with years of experience in the trenches now understand what can survive. The "Enterprise Blockchain" movement was widely seen as a dead end, but with the emergence of Layer 2 solutions, this movement has regained momentum, with Soneium being a typical example. The increasingly ineffective "decel" community can roar about how unethical and bad various mainstream actors are, but it cannot actually provide better alternatives.

But all these are pitfalls. DeFi was supposed to replace banks, NFTs were supposed to redefine ownership, and the metaverse was supposed to become people's new gathering place. However, after billions of dollars in commitments, the only things widely used are stablecoins and their corresponding trading pairs and markets. Some say any business without repeat purchases is a hard sell, requiring a constant search for new users. In certain scenarios, this includes long-term after-sales service stacked on top, entangling with old customers continuously until they go bankrupt. In reality, businesses with high liquidity but lacking core retention are also tough sells.

In this business, the group suffering the most in this cycle of losses is the new vulnerable group: VCs. They went from once guiding projects to great success and capturing hundredfold returns from good projects to now being dumped on by project teams, with few opportunities to profit. Post-TGE token sales also result in the project team and liquidity providers making money first. VCs are now reluctant to invest further, as every investment results in a loss. Rather than attributing this issue to the industry as a whole, it is more accurate to say it is a problem with the early-stage project teams' operations. The era of building grand narratives to create infrastructure has ended. Projects with high valuations and low circulating supply no longer have a place, and the valuation systems of all VC projects are being restructured as older projects undergo reshuffling.

In the new cycle, it is important not to be overly reliant on policies. While there have been significant changes in Hong Kong, the underlying sentiment remains, "We accept it as long as it doesn't mess things up." In the current market, institutions have taken over, and it is no longer a landscape where small startup ideas can challenge. One must either adapt and learn the game or be eliminated. Unilateral dominance is not easy to achieve, and the collaboration between institutions and entrepreneurs is just beginning.

6. Where Are the Opportunities Ahead?

While it may seem like criticism, those aspects that have failed deserve it. Once criticism is provided, it's time to return to rationality, as not everything has been a complete mess this year. Post-Incident with the Protocol of the Meta, it caught many off guard, leaving behind layers of optimized infrastructure six months later. The current meme storm has also passed halfway, from gmgn to Axiom, leaving behind products that understand the market needs and are proficient in the underlying technology of the chain. Many performance issues arise from a lack of understanding of the underlying technology, preventing them from achieving excellence.

Alongside outbreaks like Gmgn, which do not understand how to distribute the cake, high-quality talent is being forced to move within the industry. As they venture into deeper waters, they have educated a wave of users and shifted focus on academic research, establishing a solid foundation for future industry talent. In terms of direction, chain development has lost its allure, and capital is no longer solely directed toward large protocols. While VCs have become more cautious at this stage, tools and application layers with a clear business model and user base are now being objectively evaluated.

Cryptography has reached its limits, and the objects of user operations are breaking free. Many real-world behaviors cannot be cryptographically proven, and not everything can be solved through decentralization. Efficiency and technological bottlenecks exist, each providing an opportunity. The future will not continue along the irreconcilable gap between centralization and decentralization forever. There needs to be compromises from both sides.

Until there is a clear goal, one must focus on protecting their attention, enhancing their ability to discern what is garbage, and maintaining a positive mindset throughout the market's fluctuations to live long.

7. Conclusion

My disappointment in this industry is genuine and stems from excessively high expectations in the early days, where the term "web3" was considered the next-generation infrastructure on a massive scale. However, now, if we view it merely as Crypto Finance 3, it becomes a more rational perspective. There is no need to pay attention to experiments that do not align with crypto finance. There will always be a group of individuals in the world seeking freedom, and creating the best tools and facilities for these individuals is sufficient.

To my friends who have read up to this point, your attention is precious. Don't let others' gossip inundate your life, or else, when the information source for the average person is monopolized by Twitter KOLs and abstract discourse communities, you will only end up as "consensus cannon fodder." What truly deserves attention is always those who have excelled in their profession and incidentally become KOLs.

A friend (@Odyssey_Leexixi) once said: Nowadays, people no longer believe in various inflated bubbles, and this is also reflected in conferences. The low-hanging fruit has already been picked, and everyone is now pursuing product-market fit, creating products that truly meet user needs, have cash flow, and a business model. From dream rate to market share, I really like this shift because it is something I have always wanted to do.

Original Article Link

Princess Christine @0xsexybanana

Insights from Princess's recent Hong Kong event:

1. VCs have lost their voice and become the most miserable existence in this cycle. Project teams are the manufacturers, KOLs are the live streamers, and Binance is the Tmall e-commerce platform. The market has entered a stage where project teams directly find KOLs to promote and sell coins on Binance. The endorsement by VCs has lost its promotional value. VCs: bought in at the worst price, with the longest lock-ups. Some VCs have started transitioning to become a marketing agency, moving into the secondary market, or laying off employees.

2. The industry is moving from abstract to concrete. Everyone has started thinking about PMF, CAC, revenue, and other extremely practical issues. This marks the beginning of the era where good money drives out bad.

3. Many tracks appear to be alive but are actually dead.

Race tracks confirmed to be dead: GamefiNarratives entering the decline phase: BTCfi, modularization, DepinNarratives still fighting desperately to avoid decline: AI, TonNarratives showing stability and improvement: RWA, payment Pay-fi like @0xinfini, and Consumer Apps

4. Project founders have become more down-to-earth. They have styled their hair like post-2000s, and are now hobnobbing with the "P little generals." After all, they are the wealthiest and most energetic group in this market.

5. A chicken hotpot has become Jerusalem. The main venue is desolate, while the sub-venues, represented by Bridge-Bottom Spicy Crabs and Chicken Hotpot, are bustling. If you are not invited to chicken hotpot and spicy crabs, then you are most likely not part of this inner circle.

6. Everyone is a super-individual. Everyone is acting as a KOL, and every KOL is acting as a marketing agency. Every agency is attempting to establish a deep connection directly with the project party to gain more leverage.

7. Having a Chinese girlfriend is the fastest way to practice Chinese. Little V fluently spoke Chinese for an hour at the GCC event. She was even more fluent than during the 2049 last year. It shows that the fastest way to master a language is through love.

8. The passage of time, the division of the crowd. The ancient godfathers were fat-bellied, toasting and hiding behind the scenes, resolving enmity with a smile. The newcomers, beautiful female KOLs, sing and dance gracefully, and the female groups sing and dance to embellish peace. Strategies are ever-changing, and water always adapts to its surroundings. Everything is changing. Here, nothing is eternal.

Original Post Link

ZTZZ ฿ @ZTZZBTC

I basically don't attend those large crowded gatherings; I prefer private meetings with project leaders. This time I attended the BN conference for a whole night, and I missed part of the BG conference. I saw many interesting things and had conversations with several bosses. Today, I took the time to write down some miscellaneous notes about Hong Kong and reflections on the industry:

1. There are too many so-called "KOLs" in the industry, categorized into three groups:

The first group consists of individuals with true insights and abilities, where being a KOL is a side job. They have achieved good results in this round and will step onto a higher stage in the industry in the future. The second group made some money during the bull market but mostly spent it; these KOLs have large traffic and vigorously seek association with project parties and conspiracy groups to attract attention. They are generally considered clever among KOLs, good at creating topics by grouping together to attract traffic. They are usually anxious, experiencing for the first time the fragility of their moats. The third group has just become KOLs, unable to receive advertisements, consisting of many groupies, female ornaments, and mediocre males, among others, extremely anxious. They have no particular skills, so they just crash events and "pretend they belong."

2. The quality of this generation of KOLs is far inferior to that of 2017-2018. Now thinking back, the dry goods output, the drive to cause trouble, and even the long-term vision of the 17-18 KOLs would top even the best on the Internet.

3. Back to the old saying: people whose main identity is a KOL are generally not worth following. People in the crypto circle who have their main jobs and are willing to share can be considered. KOLs in the crypto circle who have reached the top of the industry and are sharing methodologies are the ones to focus on. I am not very interested in discussing KOLs; there's really not much to talk about. I met a few old VCs at BN who immediately said to me, "So many people, I don't recognize anybody; could you introduce me?" I just replied silently, "I don't know them either and don't need to know them. 90% of these people will disappear without a trace in three years, and the rest, we will naturally get to know." Then we both burst into laughter. Bulls and bears are the best filtering machines in the crypto circle.

Let's Talk About the Project Team:

4. As expected, in the midst of a bear market, interesting projects and teams have begun to emerge. However, the next hot trend is not yet clear. Additionally, many VCs have lost a significant amount of money, so now everyone is in a cautious investment mode. If you are a project team in a new startup, do not give up on thinking and do not stop striving. I initially wanted to say some motivational words here, but I typed and deleted them. I can only condense it into one sentence: "Wish you good luck!"

5. In this current round of entering the industry to work on projects, most are people with excellent educational backgrounds, and their commonalities are quite evident. We will discuss this point in the next article. The grassroots heroes in the crypto world have indeed become fewer.

6. Some projects are still alive but are essentially dead. Many project leaders are eagerly seeking an exit strategy.

As for the Exchange Platforms:

7. In reality, the major challenge they face is an organizational structure problem. This is an intractable issue that every large company faces. Simply put, the leadership knows what needs to be done, but they do not know how to execute it. The execution team knows how to carry out tasks but is unsure of the big picture.

8. A well-known project team leader once said, "MEME, this thing, is almost incomprehensible to people over 30 outside of the industry circle. The insiders tend to react more slowly but will try to understand it." If you want to understand these two points, think about the recent actions of figures like Justin Sun and CZ. You should then understand why Binance is the world's leading exchange and why it remains standing firm.

9. There is indeed an opportunity for overtaking in the race of on-chain exchange platforms. It is unlikely to involve any trading bot robots. The ultimate form of this product is still unclear, but once this innovation truly appears, it will be like a supernova explosion, challenging the dominance of centralized exchanges.

As for VCs:

10. After this bull-bear cycle, the old-school VCs who are still kicking are essentially indestructible, belonging to the top-tier institutions that have firmly established themselves in the industry. Please respect these individuals.

11. For those who have invested in poor projects, quickly talk to the project teams to see if there is any way to salvage the situation and create an exit strategy.

12. I know there isn't much in the market to invest in currently, and some friends are looking towards Web 2.0. However, please be cautious when investing in people from Web 2.0 who are coming into the crypto world to work on projects. In their project execution and implementation, there are many pitfalls to navigate. Moreover, most of these project leaders lack a sense of belonging and identity. Having listened to too many "experts," when they encounter trouble, their first thought might be to take the VC's money and return to Web 2.0.

13: VCs cannot invest in MEME, but can invest in MM and conspiracy.

13.5: Go travel more, traveling never loses money! Or travel with me.

As for the Sheep People:

14: Do not be a sheep person, they live without knowing why, die without knowing for whom.

15: Here is a little reminder, which I discovered during my offline lectures. There are too many sheep people now, and their only sources of information are the community and Twitter. The community is full of abstractions and noise, and you hardly ever encounter true experts. The quality of the community is a hundred levels lower compared to 2017 and 2018. Twitter is also not a good channel because there are too many trashy KOLs, and you cannot discern the level of KOLs and how they make money. Discerning KOLs is a low-return activity. Think more, learn more, connect more with true experts, and show yourself! The greatness of the crypto world is that as long as you are outstanding, you will always have the opportunity to touch the top. The top will always humble themselves to listen to the voices from below. The tree of "Building Wood" that communicates with the heavens has never been cut down.

16: Do not be a sheep person, they live without knowing why, die without knowing for whom.

Some random chitchat:

The industry has basically taken shape, and opportunities are becoming scarce. Many top bosses have already taken a break. The mid-to-high-level experts, out of a sense of passion and pursuit of life, are still shining brightly. Talking to them is very enjoyable because we don't have to talk about projects or collaborations. We talk about what we did in the past, and we understand each other's strengths and reliability. The candlestick chart records our lives, connects us, and this is the charm unique to blockchain.

Too many newcomers are being distracted by noise to focus on meaningless projects and KOLs. But detours are always necessary. I never look down on KOLs either. They are also part of the ecosystem, and the crypto world needs them to attract retail investors. I am happy to have met many outstanding juniors who are about to take the stage.

At a private gathering, when drinking at night, a certain boss brought a BD girl, and the girl kept wanting to go to the neighboring gathering to meet a few "big shots." The boss said bluntly: Can those "big shots" next door help you make money? In their eyes, you may just be a pretty girl, and they may want you there just to have a drink and have fun.

The girl was a little upset but didn't say much. I could see that she didn't understand, so I told her: "Your job is to maintain key accounts. It's understandable that you go to meet those people; it's your job. But what you do is essentially earning a salary. Because as you are, you do not have the ability to connect with those bosses next door, you don't even know which ones are the real bosses, which ones are wealthy."

A young girl who has just graduated from graduate school nods as if she understands but doesn't. I look at her, seeing a reflection of my past self. To become stronger, to become valuable, to use one's own value to connect with others, create new value, and then gradually move to a higher ecological position. This is in the currency circle, the only thing one should do, the only path to success.

The Hong Kong conference has ended. The industry's focus, core, and future are never in a high-end chicken hot pot restaurant, nor in a nightclub or KTV. True value only exists at the intersection of the path of pioneers. They casually chat in a coffee shop, confirm they are the right people, and can then collide to spark new ideas, giving birth to new value.

Original Article Link

AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB

A bleak winter amidst prosperity?

1. This should be the coldest Hong Kong conference to attend. Friends who organize exhibitions generally complain that it's difficult to attract sponsors this year, while media friends complain that there are fewer orders from project parties.

2. Many peers who have come from prestigious companies are more or less thinking of returning to work at a trading platform this year. Although the salary is fixed and it's more routine, having a salary + the reputation of a large platform is an advantage. Once again, it confirms the saying that during a bull market, people want to take risks, while during a bear market, they want to go back to work.

3. Project parties that completed token issuance a few years ago are considering what to do during this bear market so that during the next bull market, they can issue tokens again. On the other hand, the brothers who recently issued tokens are basically extremely worried, feeling like everything they do is wrong.

4. This year, VCs are also showing a polarization state. For example, the valuations given to projects invested in previously were too high and many of these were significantly cleared out by the market, whereas many new projects that they encounter afterward have very cheap valuations.

5. Events where CZ and Vitalik appeared simultaneously, unexpectedly, CZ was more popular than V. When everyone surged to take a photo with CZ, CZ quipped that they should also go find Vitalik.

6. Last year, when everyone was debating whether Ethereum had a problem, this year there seems to be a complete consensus. Whether it was Vitalik appearing on the scene or in private occasions, everywhere there were questions and discussions.

7. I asked several market makers and institutions, and this time most of them are looking at ETH dropping below 800, mainly betting on the panic exit of the DeFi and ICO crowd. However, in June 2022 everyone was also thinking along these lines, and eventually tested down to 880.

8. This year, the number of white foreign attendees from Europe and America was noticeably lower, even in technical sessions. Two years ago, everyone was very FOMO about the Hong Kong story and was willing to come a long way specifically for this event. This year, it seems that the enthusiasm of that time is no more.

9. This time, I met many older brothers who are in the rug pull game. To some extent, some of these older brothers have indeed changed their household's financial situation through rug pulling. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year's coin issuance season, although some rug pulls have buried some studios, they have also made many people wealthy.

10. Although the progress of compliance in Hong Kong is still somewhat difficult to assess, Hong Kong has already become an interesting hub for crypto communication. Undercurrents are surging, and many project teams that cannot go back are generally coming from Singapore, while the crypto OGs are generally coming from the mainland. This has led to many interesting frictions and collisions between them.

11. Some top Chinese bloggers, in addition to the blockchain industry, are also involved in streetwear, medical aesthetics, and Hong Kong-listed companies, gradually forming a large-scale industry network. This is becoming more and more similar to brokerage and investment companies in Europe and America.

The above is the observation of this Hong Kong conference. I can finally continue to sit in front of my computer, and I will share more information with you at any time. Thank you for reading.

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