If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the long term shareholders of MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 58% share price collapse, in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 35%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 36% in the last 90 days.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years that the share price fell, MarineMax's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 32% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 25% compound annual share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on MarineMax's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
Investors in MarineMax had a tough year, with a total loss of 35%, against a market gain of about 7.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that MarineMax is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
But note: MarineMax may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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