金吾财讯 | 华福证券研报指，中通快递(02057)公布2024年全年业绩，公司实现营业收入442.8亿元，同比+15.3%；归母净利润：88.2亿元，同比+0.8%；。从单季度看，24Q4实现营收129.2亿元。2024年实现快递件量340.1亿件，同比+12.6%，市占率19.4%，同比-3.4pp。公司基于当前市场条件和运营情况，预计2025年的包裹量将在408亿至422亿之间，同比增长20%至24%。该行指，公司规模效应最强，具备强大且平衡的加盟网络，行业需求修复下，公司坚持优质经营策略，在战略价值与经济价值之间审慎决策，考虑济复苏缓慢导致低价值或亏损件比重显著提升，下调公司25/26年归母净利至：101、117亿元（前值121、140亿元），新增27年归母净利133亿元，维持“买入”评级。
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