BlockBeats News, April 16, Coinbase Research released a report stating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have dropped below their respective 200-day moving averages, indicating that the market may be in the early stages of a long-term downward trend. This is consistent with the trend of total market capitalization decline and VC funding contraction, both of which are key features of a possible "crypto winter."

The report points out that many signs may indicate that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are implemented and further escalation is possible, signaling that a new "crypto winter" may be beginning.

At the same time, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This severely restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty, as traditional risk assets face continued resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, leading to decision paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the road to crypto recovery remains challenging, even with the poor stock market performance.

The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space difficult, and caution may still be required in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also suggests that investors need to take a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.