金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，中国财险(02328)发布1Q25业绩预增公告：预计公司2025年一季度净利润同比增长80%~100%。一方面，1Q25受灾害减少、降本增效等影响，公司综合成本率或有所下降，承保利润同比大幅增加；另一方面，公司投资组合优质，总投资收益大幅增长。
该行指车险为成熟业务，公司车险保费有望跟随市场稳健增长，预计25年保费收入增速为4.5%。预计2025年公司非车险保费收入同比+7.6%。
考虑到25年承保表现有望改善以及中长期投资波动，该行调整25/26/27年EPS预测至RMB1.74/1.67/1.79（调整幅度：7.3%/-1.1%/-1.5%），上调基于DCF估值法的目标价至16.0港币（前值：15.5港币），维持“买入”评级。
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