4月2日以来,美国关税政策大幅变动导致海外市场出现过山车式行情。综合各类资产表现可以看出,目前美股市场对宏观环境定价依然较为乐观。 二季度美国增长数据快速走弱和通胀数据走高或都是扭转定价走势的重要节点。市场在短期经济数据和中长期美国例外论消弭的周期性和结构性压力下依然有下行风险。 核心观点 海外市场定价乐观,交易路径过窄,对宏观压力计入不足 在当前的通胀压力下,衰退概率和降息预期并不协调。一方面,...
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