Goldman Sachs (GS, Financial) is sounding the alarm on an overlooked but mounting economic threat: the collapse of inbound foreign tourism. According to the latest data, international arrivals by air fell nearly 10% in March versus last year. Behind the drop? A cocktail of aggressive US tariffs, rising geopolitical tensions, and an increasingly hostile border experience. Goldman estimates the pullback in travel and foreign consumer boycotts could carve out as much as $90 billion—around 0.3% of US GDP—in 2025. That would mark one of the steepest hits from travel sentiment since the pandemic rebound.

The cracks are already showing. Canadian flight bookings to the US are down a staggering 70% through September. Accor SA reports a 25% drop in summer reservations from European tourists, citing negative headlines about US airport detentions. Hotel rates in the Northeast have plunged 11%, a direct signal that international demand is evaporating fast. Even small businesses—like a Niagara Falls helicopter tour company that just poured $25 million into new infrastructure—are now anxiously watching the fallout. Add in weaker airfare and car rental prices, and the demand downturn looks real, not just seasonal noise.

The shift isn't just financial—it's emotional. Canadians, historically the largest group of foreign visitors to the US, are increasingly choosing to stay home or spend abroad elsewhere. One former Oregon regular, Curtis Allen, summed it up best: “We're not just staying home—we're spending our money somewhere else.” He's not only canceling vacations, but boycotting American imports altogether. And if that sentiment scales up globally, the US could be staring down a long, slow bleed in one of its most overlooked economic engines: tourism dollars.