【中金：维持中国神华跑赢行业评级 有望凭借更好的销售结构降低盈利波动】金十数据4月15日讯，中金公司研报指出，中国神华(01088.HK)2024年自产煤吨成本为179元/吨，同比持平，成本控制得当；展望2025年，公司年报指引2025年自产煤吨成本同比增幅控制在6%内（过去几年公司吨成本同比增幅指引为10%内，指引幅度出现下调；2024年公司成本指引为同比+10%内，实际持平）。短期看，公司持续推进降本增效，同时公司2024年末专项储备为233.19亿元，“蓄水池充裕”；中长期看，考虑到通胀、人工成本上涨，煤炭行业吨成本抬升是大趋势。从中国神华角度看，公司长协比例高(~80%)、内供比例高（若考虑集团，合计~80%），公司25Q1长协履约率接近100%，有望凭借更好的销售结构降低盈利波动。维持盈利预测、跑赢行业评级、H股目标价36港元不变。
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