By George Glover
Netflix is targeting a trillion-dollar valuation by the end of the decade -- and it's easy enough to chart a path for the maker of "Adolescence" and "Black Mirror" to do just that.
Executives are aiming for a 13-figure market capitalization and believe that the streaming company can double its revenue by 2030, The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing people who attended an annual business review meeting. Netflix didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Barron's.
Netflix stock rose 2.6% to $955 ahead of Tuesday's opening bell. Shares would have to climb about 150% from their current level for the streamer's market cap to top $1 trillion.
Investors shouldn't rush to rule out those sorts of returns. The stock is up 51% over the past year alone, trouncing the broader market -- the benchmark S&P 500 is up just 6.8% over the same period.
Wall Street isn't sure Netflix can pull this one off. Analysts are expecting annual revenue to climb 87% to $72.8 billion by the end of 2030, according to FactSet consensus estimates, which would fall shy of the 100% growth target set by the executives.
But password-sharing crackdowns, price hikes, and a new ad-supported tier are all helping Netflix squeeze more money out of its subscribers -- and while the health of the U.S. economy will be a worry, executives are confident that the company's top and bottom line won't take too much of a hit.
They believe that a recession could lead to people staying home to stream shows instead of going to movie theaters or making dinner plans, according to the Journal's report. Shares also look relatively tariff-proof, having climbed nearly 1% since President Donald Trump rolled out his "Liberation Day" levies on April 2.
So while Netflix's goal of joining the $1 trillion club might look ambitious, it's definitely achievable -- even in the current climate.
Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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April 15, 2025 07:07 ET (11:07 GMT)
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