0843 ET - Among many stated goals of the Trump administration's tariff regime is to raise employment in U.S. manufacturing. That's a plausible outcome, Goldman Sachs economists write, but the gains would likely be dwarfed by a downturn in employment in other sectors, they conclude. Goldman reviews previous academic studies. Most researchers have found that a 10 percentage point increase in tariff rates raises employment by 0.2% to 0.4% in protected industries. But other industries are hurt. On the scale of the U.S. economy the effects "imply a boost of just under 100k to manufacturing employment from tariff protection but a roughly 500k drag on downstream employment from input cost pressures," Goldman writes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 14, 2025 08:43 ET (12:43 GMT)

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