荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家詹姆斯·史密斯在致客户报告中指出，英国服务业通胀的放缓趋势，将为英国央行在今年保持稳定降息节奏提供支撑。周三公布的数据显示，3月整体通胀年率放缓至2.6%，其中服务业通胀年率出现今年首次回落，从5.0%降至4.7%。

　　史密斯分析称，尽管当前4.7%的服务业通胀仍令货币政策委员会（MPC）决策层感到不安，但随着未来几个月该指标持续走低，实际数值可能低于英国央行当前预测。

　　“若服务业通胀如预期趋缓，将有助于巩固从2024年剩余时间直至2026年的政策路径——即每季度实施一次25个基点的降息。”这位经济学家特别强调。

　　值得注意的是，服务业价格走势被视为英国央行制定利率政策的关键风向标。此次数据虽仍处高位，但显现的降温迹象已为货币当局逐步放松紧缩政策创造了操作空间。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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