智通财经APP获悉，现代牧业(01117)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨4.59%，报1.14港元，成交额5108.1万港元。
消息面上，根据农业农村部数据，随着小型牧场因现金流短缺退出市场，2025年初奶牛存栏量已降至600万头以下。中国银河认为2025年牧场将加快退出速度，在供需平衡改善的推动下，原奶价格有望自2025年第三季度起实现同比增长。现代牧业管理层预计，在供给收缩、乳制品消费回暖以及进口奶粉减少等多重因素作用下，2026年原奶价格将同比上涨3%至5%。
申万宏源指出，现代牧业的第一大股东是蒙牛乳业，持股比例达56.36%，二股东新希望乳业持股比例8.03%。背靠股东，公司原奶生产并不存在消化需求的问题，产销率2019年以后持续维持在96%以上。复盘现代牧业估值起落，奶价为核心变量。2025年社会牧场持续出清，奶价有望于下半年触底回升。2025年行业亏损面进一步加大，现金流压力倒逼行业供给将进一步收缩。在悲观/乐观情景下，牛奶产量还需下降10%/5%则有望实现供需平衡。
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