MW Nasdaq set to lead Dow, S&P 500 higher on tech tariff pause amid mixed signals

By William Watts

Nasdaq-100 futures indicated tech stocks would lead U.S. stocks higher as a new week of trading got under way Sunday night, though investors noted confusion remained after mixed signals from the Trump administration over tariffs on smartphones and other consumer electronics.

Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NQ00) were up 1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES00) rose 0.7%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM00) gained 150 points, or 0.4%.

Tech investors were elated late Friday when the Customs and Border Protection released a notice saying that smartphones, laptops, integrated circuits, transistors, semiconductor storage devices and machines for making semiconductors would be exempt from some tariffs. But that elation was cut short when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified Sunday that those goods would face separate tariffs in coming months. And President Donald Trump, in an afternoon social-media post, said there was no tariff "exception" announced on Friday, but that those duties would be moved to a different tariff "bucket."

Read: Apple, Nvidia get tariff exemptions for now, but 'massive uncertainty' lies ahead

While futures got off to a positive start, continued uncertainty over the outlook on tariff policy will likely make for volatile trading and jittery investors, analysts said.

"So much for clarity, Wall Street will likely walk into Monday confused, jittery, and ready to hit the sell button on any sign of renewed tech fragility," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a Sunday note.

Whiplash has been the watchword on Wall Street, at least when it comes to equities. Stocks plunged earlier this month in the wake of Trump's unveiling of sweeping tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, with the S&P 500 SPX suffering its largest four-day percentage drop since March 2020. Equities saw substantial intraday swings over the course of the selloff, then saw the S&P 500 rip to a 9.5% gain on Wednesday after Trump paused tariffs on most trade partners other than China.

The S&P 500 logged a weekly gain of 5.7%, its strongest since November 2023, while the Dow DJIA gained 5% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP advanced 7.3%.

At the same time, a historic surge in Treasury yields last week accompanied by sharp declines for the U.S. dollar against other major currencies raised concerns around signs of stress in the bond market and the potential for a broader shift away from U.S. assets.

Don't miss: As 'sell America' trade rattles Washington and Wall Street, here's what could bring U.S. markets back from the brink

The rise in the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y last week was the largest such weekly move since 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data, while the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was the biggest since 2001. Yields and debt prices move opposite each other.

See: How the 'trade of the year' in the bond market became a nightmare for investors after Trump's tariffs

Yields would normally be expected to fall when financial markets are in disarray. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar received no benefit from the rise in yields, as would usually be the case, weakening substantially against the euro $(EURUSD.FOREX)$, Japanese yen $(USDJPY.FOREX)$ and other major rivals.

"Markets remain volatile as the off-ramp for U.S. tariffs remains unclear (particularly for China) and the rush for alternatives to the U.S. overwhelms many asset classes...The money flows we saw in the last week highlight the confusion from U.S. bonds to the U.S. dollar to the euro or gold," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, in a note.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, dropped 2.8% last week, touching its lowest in three years. The index as off 0.2% Sunday night.

Check out: Collapse of the dollar shows 'the biggest damage right now is to the U.S. brand'

-William Watts

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April 13, 2025 19:14 ET (23:14 GMT)

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