【集运欧线：短期内美方政策不断反复，建议观望为主】金十期货4月15日讯，昨日新一期标的指数SCFIS欧洲航线报1402.35点，环比下行1.4%。目前即期报价中枢持续承压，5月初宣涨能否落地则需观察运力回调幅度及4月底囤货水平，但目前Maersk已选在在W18（即5.1所在周）沿用$1800/FEU的报价，有更多航司可能选择沿用策略，市场对5月宣涨的期待已转向6月旺季窗口，后续需警惕运力再平衡兑现路径中旺季提价空间的持续压缩，或对旺季合约估值中枢形成压制。目前市场风险变量集中于政策端：特朗普上周末对华释放关税松动信号，且在特朗普4月底百日述职期前存在寻求中东地缘突破（如加沙复航提速）的可能，由于当下仍处在贸易战交锋阶段，短期内美方政策不断反复，建议观望为主。
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