智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，由于香港交易所(00388)有近一半收入来自股市成交，因此其盈利及股价表现与市场波动有密切相关，近月波动加剧，令相关风险变得更加突出。展望未来，港交所盈利增长可能已见顶，未来几个季度增幅或保持双位数，但预料将逐步放缓;而随着利率下行，未来投资收益可能成为增长阻力。该行将港交所2026及2027年每股盈利预测下调5%及9%，目标价从431港元下调至378港元。
不过高盛仍维持对港交所的“买入”评级，并列出多项潜在利好因素，预期有望抵销上述风险。其中，更多强大的ADR组合交易及北水在中期预料可支持日均成交额;此外实际利率下降令固定收益投资吸引力降低，亦可能推高日均成交额;加上港交所正努力收窄买卖差价，进一步提升市场流动性和交易效率;以及国债期货交易、降低南下投资者股息税等政策支持。根据情景分析，高盛相信港交所的风险回报水平具有吸引力。
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