智通财经APP获悉,航空股继续上扬,截至发稿,中国国航(00753)涨4.13%,报4.79港元;美兰空港(00357)涨2.49%,报9.89港元;南方航空(01055)涨2.13%,报3.36港元;东方航空(00670)涨0.83%,报2.43港元。
消息面上,高盛发布研报称,中国航空公司可能受益于飞机交付缓慢导致的供应短缺,以及油价下跌。该行注意到,市场对需求增长表示担忧,原因包括关税上调导致的宏观经济疲软,以及比预期更快的机队引进计划。然而,高盛相信中国的航空旅行需求相对具有韧性,因为大多数为休闲需求,且2008至2009年的经验显示,航空需求的年复合增长率达到12%,与2005至2007年的15%相比基本保持稳定。
国君海通证券指出,清明短假后公商务出行快速恢复,客流增长好于业界预期,客座率保持同比上升,临近购票增加驱动近日票价稳步上升。未来数周将迎传统展会旺季,预计票价将继续上升。关税风暴与OPEC加速增产驱动油价中枢明显下降,重申航空具油价下跌期权。预计2025年供需继续恢复,机队规模低速增长且周转提升空间有限,国内消费提振政策加码将助力航空需求增长。票价修复仍是航司共识,油价下行将加速盈利恢复。重申航空具长逻辑,建议市场预期低位逆向增持。
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