在消息面风险继续主导市场、增强日元作为避险货币的吸引力的背景下，即使交易员重新评估日本央行加息前景，日元兑美元也势将进一步攀升。

　　因为美国政策充满变数，美元正在失去避险吸引力。很明显投资者正在进入日元避险：作为一种风险指标，澳元/日元汇率与股票市场之间的相关性增强。

　　因为担心关税对全球经济增长的影响，日本央行加息预期骤然降温。投资者现在预计年底前加息的可能性约为50%，约一个月前为100%。然而资产管理公司和杠杆基金都增加了日元多头头寸。投资者将密切关注，日元会否成为与美国财长的潜在双边会晤中的关键议题。

　　相比长期均值，日元实际有效汇率仍被低估了，美元则相反。在关税上调情况下，出口驱动型经济体是不愿本币升值的，因为这会侵蚀竞争力。但由于日元相对于日本贸易伙伴的货币仍然便宜，其可能能承受进一步走强。

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责任编辑：刘明亮

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