Netflix 2025Q1 Earnings Conference Call

Netflix reports quarterly results on Thursday.

Netflix Inc. might not be the first company you think of when you think of tariffs. But with the streaming platform’s quarterly results due Thursday, analysts will be looking for signs of any indirect impact, as the stakes rise in the U.S.’s trade war with China and other nations and the company’s stock cools from record highs.

Oppenheimer analysts, in a note this month, said Netflix had “almost no exposure” to tariffs. However, the people who watch it, and their employers, and the companies who advertise on it, might, amid concerns about the impact to the economy.

But as viewers continue to scrutinize their budget, they say Netflix, and its stay-at-home-and-watch-TV proposition amid higher costs of living, is likelier to make the cut, despite a price increase in January.

Morningstar analyst Matt Dolgin said Netflix wasn’t recession-immune. But with investors likely to zero in on Netflix’s outlook, the company was, at least to some degree, “recession-resistant.”

“If we end up in an environment where consumers need to start cutting costs, tightening their budgets a little bit, I would expect that for most, Netflix is lower on the list of things you might look to for savings,” he said.

Some things about Netflix’s quarterly results this time around will be different. These results will be the first without subscriber figures, a key metric for investors over the past decade, as the company’s film and miniseries library — and spending — ballooned in an effort to attract as many viewers as possible.

Thus, Wall Street will have to look for other clues on those trends from management’s broader remarks. Benchmark Equity Research analysts, in a note this month, said other metrics, like Netflix’s engagement report and Nielsen data, would become more important.

Other likely areas of focus will be the same: The push into sports broadcasts, live events and gaming; competition with YouTube; ad-spending trends. William Blair analysts this month noted “budget jitters” among advertising managers, as businesses brace for the ripple effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the response from China and other nations.

Netflix is not available in China. But any broader economic pullback could take spending on production and advertising with it. Some subscribers could still cancel in a sharper downturn.

A protracted trade war could also push equipment costs higher on film and TV sets. That friction would arrive on top of a broader slowdown in the entertainment industry, as Netflix’s rivals try to shore up streaming profits and manage costs — often at the expense of new films and shows.

More analysts have deemed Netflix the winner of the streaming wars. Like many other companies, shares of Netflix sank after Trump announced steep new tax hikes on imports earlier this month. But they later rebounded, after Trump eased off, and are still up around 47% over the past 12 months. The stock is off record highs reached in February.

However, Dolgin said he believed the stock was too expensive. He said Netflix still had long-term growth, but that it was unrealistic to continue to expect the kind of sales and profit gains over the past couple years, given the subscriber saturation in North America.

Still, he said that the platform might serve as something of a default for many viewers.

“To me, people go to Netflix to see what’s on Netflix that they might want to watch,” he said. “Whereas — this is, again, just me speculating right now — in many cases, the other services, they go to those services because they know that something they want to watch is there.”

The Benchmark analysts, citing remarks from the NYU professor Scott Galloway, also said Netflix was a “quasi-utility that anchors any household’s overall complement of streaming services.”

While they noted that viewing time per member slipped around 5% in the second half of last year, they also cited research that found that Netflix users were likelier to stay with the platform than rivals like Disney+ and Apple TV+. While a recession could add pressure, they also said it was possible for the streaming service to draw more viewers, as other studios spend less on new shows.

They also noted the sway of the algorithm.

“Netflix is better positioned to resist voluntary churn than other streamers, especially given its still superior TV algorithms providing recommendations,” they said.