金吾财讯 | 建银国际发布研报指出，阿里巴巴（09988）在FY4Q25（截至2025年3月）的财务表现将呈现收入与利润双增长的态势，核心电商业务持续稳健，云计算业务增速提升，叠加稳定的利润率表现，维持"跑赢大市"评级，目标价微调至173.40美元。报告预计，阿里巴巴FY4Q25营收将达到2360亿元人民币，同比增长6.5%，略低于市场预期的0.3%。调整后EBITA为322亿元，同比大幅增长34%，主要得益于成本控制优化及高利润率业务占比提升。非GAAP净利润预计达310亿元，同比增长22%，超出市场预期6.9个百分点。核心电商（CMR）业务收入预计增长8.1%，增速持续高于GMV的4%左右增幅，主要受广告服务费和全域营销工具渗透率提高驱动。在业务板块方面，淘天集团（TTG）的调整后EBITA利润率预计为40.1%，虽同比下降1.2个百分点，但通过严格的销售费用管理实现利润稳定。云业务受益于人工智能需求激增，预计收入增速从上季度的13%提升至18%，调整后EBITA利润率维持在9.0%。管理层强调，云计算业务的中期增长潜力与股东回报计划（含潜在特别股息）为股价提供支撑。建银国际小幅下调目标价至173.40美元（原175.70美元），主要反映人民币兑美元汇率波动影响。当前股价对应2026财年预测市盈率仅10.4倍，估值具备吸引力。风险因素包括消费复苏不及预期及国际业务拓展不确定性。
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