金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，英伟达披露，美国政府于4月9日通知，H20芯片向中国和其他D5组国家出口需要许可证，新要求将"无限期"实施。自1Q25 在DeepSeek推动下，中国CSP持续增加H20服务器订单，1Q25订购了160亿美元H20芯片，对应130万颗H20芯片、16万台AI服务器。该行估计，英伟达55亿美元的存货跌价准备，对应110万颗H20芯片、13.8万台AI服务器的出货量，而在2024年，面向中国的H20芯片出货量为100万颗、H20 AI服务器出货量为12.5万台；H20 AI服务器占中国AI服务器市场30%。因此，该行相信美国最新H20禁令将短期内导致服务器供应链波动，相关AI服务器产业链包括联想、工业富联、华勤技术、比亚迪电子和立讯精密等。长远来看，该行相信中国CSP将加快采购国产算力芯片和服务器，国产算力供应链有望快速崛起。
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