【德银：由于经济下行风险增加，欧洲央行将降息】金十数据4月17日讯，德意志银行预计欧洲央行将在4月会议上将利率下调25个基点至2.25%。尽管欧洲央行在3月份为继续降息或暂停降息保留了选择余地，但自那以来，风险平衡已果断转向宽松政策。对等关税、不确定性上升和金融环境收紧对经济的打击似乎比欧洲央行预期的更为严重。此外，随着反通胀力量日益占主导地位，关税将推高通胀的假设现在正受到挑战。主要的（通胀）下行风险包括欧元快速升值、油价下跌以及贸易转移的可能性增加，所有这些都对通胀前景构成压力。德银指出，通胀风险目前明显偏向下行。虽然关税暂停后的指引可能只是温和的鸽派，但面对复杂且不断演变的冲击，欧洲央行必须保持灵活。德银坚持最终利率将定在1.5%的观点，并警告称市场可能仍然低估了通缩的风险。
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