【苹果】新季存增产预期 低库存支撑现货看涨情绪

国元期货研究
18 Apr

策略观点苹果主力换月2510合约,作为新季收购期合约,其估值受两个因素影响:一是本季的市场状况,二是新季产量的预估。从本季市场形势来看,本季库存处于历史低位,仅高于受倒春寒影响,大范围减产的19年。供给偏紧叠加本季偏低的收购价,后市现货继续上行的动力尚在。从新季产量来看,当前新季果处于开花期,上周的大风降温天气引发市场担忧,不过实际影响较小,市场对天气的炒作降温。从目前观察的花量预测,新季属于大年...

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