格隆汇4月17日｜高盛发表报告指，特朗普的关税措施虽可能刺激制造业就业率上升，但受关税影响的其他行业的职位流失，将导致美国就业出现净负面影响。报告提到，特朗普的关税保护，将使制造业就业岗位增加不到10万人，但较高的投入成本将对就业造成近50万个岗位拖累。总体而言，该估计表明，即使考虑到受保护制造业的就业增加，美国经济的整体就业岗位仍将减少40万个。

由Jan Hatzius领导的高盛经济学家在报告中表示，一些研究发现，关税在适用于新兴产业、需求弹性特别高的产品，或对下游产业成本影响较小的产品时，可能会有效。然而，报告指出特朗普政府推出的关税范围更广，且其实施方式并非不针对新兴产业、需求弹性大的商品或最终产品。统计分析表明，尽管关税计划可能有助于制造业就业，但可能对美国整体就业产生净拖累。

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