WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC): A Bear Case Theory

Insider Monkey
17 Apr

We came across a bearish thesis on WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC) on Substack by Keith Dalrymple. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on WSC. WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC)'s share was trading at $23.21 as of April 16th. WSC’s trailing and forward P/E were 161.53 and 15.80 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Aerial shot of a modular space surrounded by poratable storage units.

WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC) recent investor day and unexpected $500 million debt offering have raised serious concerns about the company’s liquidity, fleet condition, and future strategy. While management had previously indicated they would refinance the maturing $525 million 2025 notes using their Asset-Based Lending (ABL) facility—citing $1.7 billion in borrowing capacity at a lower interest rate—they instead opted for a second lien note offering at 6.625%. This sharp deviation suggests that ABL lenders may have reassessed the collateral value of WSC’s aging fleet and reduced the company’s access to credit, effectively pushing WSC into the high-yield junk market. The timing of this shift, which followed a series of public critiques about WSC’s deteriorating fleet condition, supports the idea that lenders may be growing wary of the asset base that backs the ABL line.

Investor day remarks from President and CFO Tim Boswell only added to the skepticism. His detailed discussion of WSC’s “idle fleet” being “parked” for future remanufacturing was interpreted by many as a veiled admission that much of the fleet is no longer rental-ready. Instead of generating near-term cash flow, the fleet requires material capital expenditures to be viable again, which undermines its utility as collateral. Boswell’s effort to frame this as a capital-efficient advantage fell flat, as it contradicted prior messaging about the fleet’s immediate monetization potential and suggested the assets were effectively scrap with uncertain recovery value.

This pivot away from emphasizing utilization—a key metric in the equipment rental industry—further signals that management is distancing itself from traditional benchmarks, which may be revealing in itself. Management’s statement that the company doesn’t “price based on utilization” and its focus on remanufacturing idle units paints a picture of a company facing capital constraints and asset degradation. While the debt deal staves off a near-term liquidity crisis, the higher rate, speculative credit rating, and withdrawal of cheaper funding speak to diminished confidence in WSC’s underlying business health. The equity value is now questionable in light of limited fleet monetization potential, tighter lender scrutiny, and the risk that stock buybacks—funded by new debt—are no longer aligned with lender interests. In total, WSC’s recent moves suggest not just a tactical refinancing but a strategic retreat from earlier financial narratives, leaving investors to question what the company’s assets are truly worth and whether the core business model remains intact.

WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 58 hedge fund portfolios held WSC at the end of the fourth quarter which was 52 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of WSC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than WSC but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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