【机构观点：菜籽供应忧虑因中澳贸易关系走向而松动】金十期货4月17日讯，中美贸易关系僵持背景下，中国积极拓展与其他国家的贸易往来。在农产品方面，澳大利亚逐渐获得重返中国市场的契机。1. 我们认为菜籽进口受限问题如果缓解，那么到港时点的月差再度承压是大概率事件。而单边价格的向下空间更需要看澳菜籽的绝对价格以及国内菜籽榨利情况。对于澳菜籽，目前正值新作播种准备期，旧作库存消化时间进程基本过半。2. 在加菜籽销售压力显著缓解，欧洲菜籽供应偏紧的局面下，澳菜籽价格持续向下突破此前加菜籽价格低点的条件并不成熟。3. 国内进口菜籽现货榨利经过快速回落后逐步进入偏低位置，能提供的压缩空间逐步有限。综合来看对近期菜粕下跌持阶段性调整看法，关注2450附近支撑。
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