【中信证券：消费和出口驱动强生产，一季度经济开门红】金十数据4月17日讯，中信证券研报表示，今年3月，工业和服务业生产均实现较快增长，供需两端景气均较前两月明显回升，尤其是外需景气度仍超预期保持在较高区间。从生产端来看，3月工业增加值增速继续走高，大幅超出市场预期，原因主要是出口和耐用品消费强劲叠加去年同期基数偏低，4月关税影响显现可能拖累生产端表现。从需求侧来看，今年3月消费数据明显高于市场预期，商品消费、餐饮消费增速较今年1-2月均有较大回升。3月投资增速显著超出市场预期，一季度投资实现“开门红”，基建投资靠前发力或为核心驱动因素。美国于4月上旬对我国加征125%“对等关税”，4月开始贸易摩擦对我国经济的拖累可能会逐步显现。向后看，出口链景气走弱的程度和内需尤其是消费提振的效果是值得关注的两条主线。为应对逆全球化思潮背后潜在的外部风险，我们预期国内逆周期政策将以财政和货币为主要抓手，出台增量政策保障经济平稳发展。
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