The Boston Beer Company, Inc. SAM is likely to register growth in its top line when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 24. In the first quarter, the company’s bottom line is expected to have declined year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $432.3 million, implying a 1.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has increased by a penny in the past seven days to 89 cents per share. This implies a decline of 14.4% from the year-ago quarter. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Quote

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 42.4%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 288.4%, on average.

Things to Know About SAM’s Q1 Earnings

Boston Beer has faced ongoing challenges, primarily due to the continued slowdown in the hard seltzer category and weakening demand for its Truly brand in the first quarter of 2025. As consumer preferences shift toward other beyond-beer options and more affordable premium light beers, Truly’s performance remains under pressure. The loss of novelty in the hard seltzer space, combined with heightened competition from emerging beverage categories, is weighing on demand.

Macroeconomic factors, including inflation and reduced discretionary spending, are also contributing to a shift in volume away from hard seltzers. These headwinds are expected to have impacted Boston Beer’s overall sales mix and place pressure on depletions in the near term.

In the last quarter of 2024, Boston Beer saw a slight drop in product shipments, mainly due to the continued weak performance of Truly Hard Seltzer. While this decline had a negative impact, it was partially balanced by solid growth in other brands like Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser and Hard Mountain Dew.

In the first quarter of 2025, shipments are expected to be stronger than typical for the season, driven by planned inventory replenishment from wholesalers, particularly for high-performing brands. That said, consumer takeaway is likely to remain flat year over year. As a result, while reported shipment volumes may show an uptick, the underlying demand landscape remains uncertain, especially in a quarter that’s typically soft due to seasonal volume trends.

Despite these near-term challenges, Boston Beer is positioned for improved performance, supported by strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings, which are helping offset inflationary pressures. The company’s strategic pricing actions and cost optimization initiatives have led to margin improvement, a trend expected to continue.

SAM remains focused on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position and drive operational performance. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. With sustained growth in this segment, SAM expects the trend to persist in the coming years, further solidifying its competitive edge.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of -45.72% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Valuation Picture of SAM Stock

From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 22.26X, below the Beverages - Soft drinks industry’s average of 16.01X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

Boston Beer shares have shown a downward trend, losing 4.6% in the past three months against the industry’s growth of 15.5%.

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Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 91 cents, which implies a 7.1% increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's Wholesale Club’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.2 billion, which indicates growth of 5.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.
 
Freshpet FRPT currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2025 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $262.3 million, which indicates an increase of 17.2% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s quarterly earnings per share of 13 cents implies a 38.1% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has remained stable in the past seven days. FRPT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 78.8%, on average.

Church & Dwight Co. CHD has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. CHD is likely to register top-line growth when it releases first-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.51 billion, which implies growth of 0.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Church & Dwight’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 89 cents per share, implying a decline of 7.3% from the year-ago quarter’s number. CHD delivered an earnings surprise of 9.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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