招银国际发研报指，由于关税忧虑，导致美国消费者提前抢购汽车、家电、消费电子等耐用品，令美国3月零售增长反弹。不过，家居家装、加油站和网购增长率下滑，显示利率高企和通胀预期反弹仍抑制住房需求和出行等非必要支出。因天气回暖，公用事业产出下滑拖累工业总产出3月按月下跌。
该行表示，面对白宫政策引发金融市场动荡，美联储主席鲍威尔发表鹰派讲话，承认滞涨风险带来两难局面，否认Fed Put存在，将稳定金融市场的责任交给白宫。白宫在金融市场以动荡发出警告后已调整策略，暂缓对中国以外贸易伙伴“对等关税”并率先开启与盟友谈判，未来将在稳定市场和推进关税议程之间寻求平衡。该行相信，虽然近期滞涨令美联储陷入两难，但金融市场动荡和远期衰退风险或将推动美联储在6月或7月降息一次，并于9月或12月再度降息一次。
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