SINGAPORE: With less than a day to go before Nomination Day on Wednesday (Apr 23), up to seven constituencies appear headed for multi-cornered fights - down from more than a dozen just a week ago - as this General Election (GE) shapes up to be one of the most fiercely contested to date.

Several opposition parties have made last-minute attempts in the past week to deconflict and avoid multi-cornered fights, though members told CNA that these attempts fell through. 

Over the past 34 years, there has been an average of two multi-cornered fights across the last seven elections, with the previous high of five recorded in GE1991.

In 2020, two such contests were seen, in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and Pioneer SMC.

Singaporeans will head to the polls on May 3, with more than 2.75 million eligible to vote.

Experts said that while a large number of multi-cornered fights can be expected as the competition heats up, not all may play out when nomination closes.

“Why three-way contests may not materialise is that the party which finishes third and which also loses its election deposit would signal the irrelevance of that party,” said Singapore Management University (SMU) law don associate professor Eugene Tan.

Jalan Kayu Single Member Constituency (SMC), for one, will not see a multi-cornered fight this election, after Red Dot United (RDU) and People’s Power Party (PPP) announced on Tuesday that they would step aside for the Workers’ Party to contest.

The PPP is also dropping out of Tampines Changkat SMC to make way for the Workers’ Party, said PPP party secretary-general Goh Meng Seng on Tuesday.

Based on party movements and statements of intent made by the parties, five GRCs and two SMCs may still see multi-cornered fights. They are: Punggol GRC, Tanjong Pagar GRC, Tampines GRC, Sembawang GRC, Ang Mo Kio GRC, Radin Mas SMC, and Potong Pasir SMC.

More multi-cornered fights could emerge if independent candidates enter the race on Nomination Day.

Political party insiders told CNA that, unlike previous elections, opposition parties did not hold their traditional “horse-trading talks” to decide which parties would compete in which constituencies and avoid multi-cornered fights.

In response to a question about multi-cornered fights during a press conference on Apr 19, Workers’ Party chief Pritam Singh said: “I mean, we don't attend these sessions, but what I would say is it's an open system, and you can certainly expect there to be more three- four-cornered fights from here on.”

FAILED TALKS

In the lead-up to Nomination Day, several opposition parties have initiated talks among themselves. However, not all discussions have been successful.

People’s Alliance for Reform’s (PAR) potential candidate for Yio Chu Kang SMC, Michael Fang, for instance, told CNA on Apr 12 that he had attempted to organise a dinner with National Solidarity Party (NSP), RDU, Singapore’s People’s Party (SPP) and Singapore United Party (SUP).

The dinner, initially planned for on Apr 19, was later cancelled as there were “not enough interested party responses”, said Mr Fang.

PAR comprises three parties: Reform Party, Peoples Voice and the Democratic Progressive Party.

“PAR has always indicated a willingness to talk previously. Unfortunately, due to the closeness of the elections, most other parties involved in the three-cornered fights declined the invitation for last-minute talks and decided to fight instead,” Dr Fang said.

PAR’s secretary-general Lim Tean, however, told CNA on Apr 18 that the dinner was meant to be a fundraising event, rather than a platform to discuss avoiding three-cornered fights.

Dr Fang had chosen to cancel it because “everyone is now rushing to do other things” after the nomination date was announced, Mr Lim added.

Mr Lim also said that “there have not been planned talks with other parties and we don’t see a need to”.

“Our position on where we are going to contest is very clear and has been clear from day one. We are contesting places where we have done serious groundwork over the last five years and other parties have not,” he said. “We don’t see the need to negotiate in these circumstances.”

Of the seven constituencies PAR plans to contest, it is expected to face a three-way showdown at Tanjong Pagar GRC, Radin Mas SMC and Potong Pasir SMC.

Mr Lim had initially announced in March that the party would contest in eight SMCs and two GRCs. However, on Apr 18, he said PAR would not run in Marymount, Jalan Kayu and Kebun Baru SMCs "after careful deliberation and also taking into account the interest of the other parties and their movements".

Mr Lim added that he “does not foresee much problems” with multi-cornered fights in the upcoming general election.

FALL OUT

Voters in Ang Mo Kio GRC can also expect to see three parties campaigning in the ward. SUP and PPP secretary-generals have told the media previously that talks between both parties fell through.

Mr Goh, secretary-general of PPP, told CNA that he had suggested SUP run under the PPP flag, but SUP’s chief Andy Zhu declined the offer.

Mr Zhu confirmed to CNA on Apr 21 that he last received a message from PPP’s Derrick Sim on Apr 14, but declined to reveal what the message was about.

In his reply to Mr Sim, he asked that PPP “recede” their team in Ang Mo Kio to avoid a three-cornered fight, and has not heard from the other opposition party since.

At the press conference on Tuesday where he announced the party would not run in Jalan Kayu SMC and Tampines Changkat SMC, Mr Goh said the party will not contest against WP "because they are the most effective, so called branding, in and out of parliament".

However, his party will likely be involved in two multi-cornered fights in Ang Mo Kio GRC and Tampines GRC.

"Both SUP and NSP are friends. I know their leaders … I have to say sorry to them for our agenda, our specific unique agenda,” he said, without elaborating further.

However, some opposition parties have stepped aside to avoid going into a multi-cornered fight.

The NSP announced on Apr 20 that it will not field candidates in Sembawang West and Tampines Changkat SMCs as well as Jalan Besar, Marine Parade-Braddell Heights and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRCs.

Secretary-general Spencer Ng said the party stepped aside because of its “long-standing commitment to responsible engagement and meaningful opposition co-operation".

However, the party has not given up Tampines GRC, which might see a four-way fight between the PAP, WP, PPP and NSP. The party had contested the ward in GE2020, garnering 33.59 per cent of the vote.

NSP has also refused to back down from a three-cornered fight in Sembawang GRC. This prompted the RDU to withdraw from an opposition coalition involving NSP, SUP and SPP on Apr 12.

When asked about the party’s preparations for three-corner fights, Mr Ng said on Apr 20: “Let us not be disillusioned that the PAP can be easily dislodged.”

Meanwhile, the SUP team has spoken to Reform Party treasurer Mahaboob Baatsha, said Mr Zhu, and Mr Mahaboob confirmed that his party would not contest in Ang Mo Kio GRC again this year, CNA reported on Apr 6.

In the 2020 election, the PAP secured 71.91 per cent of votes in Ang Mo Kio GRC against the Reform Party.

The Singapore Democratic Alliance was supposed to reveal if it would contest Punggol GRC, which might be contested by the PAP and WP, on Tuesday. However, the party had cancelled a press conference to attend a funeral.

IMPACT OF MULTI-CORNERED FIGHT DEPENDS ON WHICH OPPOSITION PARTY CONTESTS: EXPERTS

Experts said there are several reasons for the increased number of multi-cornered fights.

Independent political observer Felix Tan said the “dramatic” changes to electoral boundaries is one reason, with another being the announcement of many new candidates.

“Everyone feels that they have the opportunity to start afresh in these constituencies,” he said. “Each of these political parties feel that no one political party has all the answers to policymaking in Singapore.”

Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) said that many opposition parties have confidence that the "ground is sweet for them".

“The opposition landscape seems to have morphed into parties that see themselves as more or less equally electable based on their own merit in the constituencies they consider themselves to have a significant foothold,” he told CNA.

SMU’s Assoc Prof Tan said while there will be more multi-cornered fights than previous elections, many may not materialise.

He noted that such contests are more likely to occur in SMCs and in the western half of Singapore, areas where the WP is unlikely to contest.

“Where WP is involved, the opposition vote will likely and significantly coalesce around it. This vote pooling behind the WP could result in the other opposition party coming a distant third and losing the election deposits,” he said.

He added that in a scenario where the difference between the two opposition parties is “not clear”, the opposition vote could be split between both parties. Such a scenario could pave the way for a “comfortable victory for the PAP”.

While Dr Tan said multi-cornered fights have made Singapore’s opposition landscape “really messy”, it can also be seen as a sign that more people are becoming actively engaged in politics.

“In a democracy, you tend to see this sort of active involvement of political parties. There seems to be more people being involved in politics because they want to play a part in deciding or charting Singapore’s direction.”

When asked about how the rise in multi-cornered fights has changed the messaging of opposition unity, Dr Tan said that "there’s no unity in the opposition parties. It’s each for themselves. At the end of the day, politics is a selfish game", he said.

Dr Tan added that the PAP would have to “strengthen its core” and attract the right people into their team, and the same goes for WP.

“They are so far the strongest opposition party. They have maintained a lead amongst all the opposition parties, and they need to continue with that lead,” he said.

“So to attract more credible individuals into their party would be something very important for them,” Dr Tan added.

Additional reporting by Ang Hwee Min, Davina Tham and Abigail Ng