金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，内需刺激预期强化，啤酒板块弹性与韧性兼备。该行预判竞争格局转变带来局部景气机遇。该行重申景气环比修复、成本下行、竞争温和的年度观点。价格提升逻辑弱化，而利润率改善、分红逻辑强化，景气修复催化。旺季在即，建议重点布局啤酒板块。该行指，据终端动销及库存情况推算，该行预计1-2月中旬行业龙头出货量整体尚未修复，但2月底至3月出货量则显著改善，该行预计1Q25行业龙头（除百威）或均实现良好开局，其中青啤1-3月或呈现逐月改善趋势。终端动销相对平稳，1Q25结构吨价上虽略有承压，基本符合预期。该行预判行业竞争格局或将加速转变，并带来龙头景气机遇。此外，竞争态势优于预期，成本下行确定性高。华润啤酒提出“精益、精简、精细”的管理策略，该行预计1Q25不仅未出现竞争加剧，费用投放力度还有所收缩，百威“市占率优先”策略并未引发价格战，竞争格局表现超预期。该行预计2025年大麦成本或呈下行趋势，未受关税影响，其他包装物成本相对稳定，整体吨成本或将有所集约。
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