MW Has bitcoin halving lost its mojo? The crypto sees its worst ever post-halving performance.

By Frances Yue

Bitcoin's price soared in the months after its first three halvings

It's been a year since bitcoin's last halving, a widely anticipated event that may no longer boost the price of the cryptocurrency.

Halving is a mechanism written into the bitcoin blockchain's algorithm in order to control the supply of the coin, which has a cap of 21 million. At halvings, the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions.

The event has historically been viewed as bullish for bitcoin (BTCUSD), as it increased scarcity and fueled investors' optimism. Bitcoin's price soared in the months after its first three halvings.

Read: Here is everything you need to know about the bitcoin halving

However, this year bitcoin posted its worst post-halving performance in history, prompting some investors to ask whether the boost to price due to halvings has fizzled, as the introduction of bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year may have transformed the market structure.

Since bitcoin's last halving on April 19, 2024, the crypto has gained 43.4%, which was lackluster compared with previous cycles. Bitcoin surged 7,000% in the 12 months following the 2012 halving and rose 291% one year after the 2016 halving. It gained 541% in the year after the 2020 halving, according to data from crypto-research firm Kaiko.

Bitcoin, which was created in 2009, has gone through four halvings so far, so the historical data may not be representative. Halvings are scheduled to happen after every 210,000 blocks that are mined - or about every four years - until the maximum supply of bitcoin has been released.

The uncertainty around President Donald Trump's trade policies and the outlook for the global economy may have weighed on bitcoin's price, according to analysts at Kaiko. Even the president's order to create a strategic bitcoin reserve in March failed to lift the crypto.

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, a measure of economic risks, averaged 317 for the six months following bitcoin's last halving, the Kaiko analysts wrote in a Tuesday note. In comparison, the index averaged roughly 107 in the six months after the 2012 halving; 109 in the six months after the 2016 halving; and 186 in the six months after the 2020 halving, according to the analysts.

Bitcoin's underperformance this cycle may be partially attributable to the maturation of the asset, as its price swings in general became more tempered. Bitcoin's 60-day price volatility has fallen to roughly 50% on Tuesday from over 200% in 2012, according to the analysts.

"As bitcoin matures, it is now more likely to deliver stable, though potentially more subdued, returns compared to earlier cycles," the analysts wrote.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization went up 0.6% to $92,136 on Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It is still 15.6% away from its record high at $109,225, reached on Jan. 20, the day of Trump's inauguration to a second term in the White House.

-Frances Yue

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April 23, 2025 11:59 ET (15:59 GMT)

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