Vale S.A. VALE reported iron ore production of around 67.7 million tons (Mt) for the first quarter of 2025, which was 4.5% lower than the year-ago quarter. A strong performance at the S11D mine, which recorded its highest-ever first-quarter output, was offset by lower production elsewhere. Meanwhile copper and nickel production were both 11% higher than the year-ago quarter.

Digging Deeper Into Vale’s Iron Ore Production Numbers

In the first quarter of 2025, the S11D mine produced 19.4 Mt of iron ore, 9.3% higher than the first quarter of 2024. This improvement, driven by the ongoing asset reliability initiatives, led to the highest production ever for the first quarter for the mine.

However, gains at S11D were offset by licensing restrictions at Serra Norte, which were worsened by heavy rainfall. As a result, total output from the Northern System declined 2.6% year over year to approximately 35 Mt.

Southeastern System’s iron ore production dipped 6% year over year to 18.4 Mt. A 49-day corrective maintenance period at the Cauê plant impacted Itabira’s production. This impact was somewhat offset by improved performance at Fazendão as a result of enhancements at the processing plant implemented in 2024  and increased third-party purchases.

Southern System saw a 7% dip in iron ore production to 14.3 Mt. This decline reflected Vale’s strategic shift toward producing higher-margin products as part of its portfolio optimization.

Vale’s pellet production was down 15.2% year over year to 7.2 Mt in the first quarter.  The decline was attributed to lower production at the Tubarão plants resulting from decreased pellet feed availability from Itabira and increased rainfall levels in the Northern System. This has impacted the moisture grade of the pellet feed and, consequently, the performance of the São Luis plant.

Details on Vale’s Iron Ore Sales Volumes & Realized Prices

Sales Volume Improves in Q1: Iron ore fines sales in the first quarter of 2025 rose 8% from the year-ago quarter to 56.8 Mt. This growth was driven by the sale of previously built-up inventories, which had been stockpiled to mitigate shipping constraints caused by heavy rainfall in the Northern System. In response to current market conditions, Vale has prioritized offering medium-grade products such as blended products (BRBF) and concentrated products in China (PFC1) to maximize the value of its portfolio.

Pellet sales were down 18.8% to around 7.5 Mt. Total iron ore sales were up 3.6% year over year to 66.1 Mt. 

Iron Ore Prices Down: The average realized iron ore fines price was $90.8 per ton in the March-ended quarter, down 9.8% year over year. 
The average realized iron ore pellets price for the quarter was $140.8 per ton, 18.1% lower than the year-ago quarter.

Vale’s Copper Operations Deliver Growth

In the first quarter, Vale produced 90.9 kt of copper, which was 11% higher than the year-ago quarter. This growth was driven by stronger performance at the Salobo mine, which saw output rise 8.1%, and at Sossego, where production surged 29.9%. Combined, these improvements boosted copper production in Brazil by 12.7% year over year to 68.3 kt.

In Canada, copper output rose 6% year over year, reflecting the ramp-up and stable performance of the Voisey’s Bay operation.

Vale sold 81.9 kt of copper in the quarter, which was up 6.6% year over year, reflecting the higher production. Sales in Brazil were up 7.8% and in Canada increased 3.3% year over year. 

The average realized price for copper operations (Salobo and Sossego) was $8,891 per ton, up 15.7% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $8,630 per ton.

Vale’s Nickel Production & Sales Overview

Nickel production increased 11.1% year over year to 43.9 kt in the January-March 2025 period. This reflects the continued ramp-up of Voisey’s Bay underground mines. At Thompson, finished nickel production surged 51% year over year, driven by additional volume delivered to Sudbury. Meanwhile, at Sudbury, finished nickel production decreased 3.2%  due to a timing mismatch between mined material and refined production.
Nickel sales were recorded at 38.9 kt, up 17.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. 

The average realized nickel price was $16,106 per ton, down 4% from the year-ago quarter. This was in line with the decrease in LME nickel reference prices.

Expected Impact on VALE’s Upcoming Q1 Results

Vale is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results this Thursday. Increased sales volume for iron ore, copper and nickel, along with higher copper prices, is likely to have been offset by lower iron ore and nickel prices. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale‘s first-quarter revenues is $8.16 billion, indicating a 3.5% year-over-year decline.  The consensus mark for earnings is at 37 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year drop of 5%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.) 

VALE’s Guidance for 2025

The company expects iron ore production to be in the band of 325-335 Mt. Pellet production is projected to be between 38 Mt and 42 Mt. Vale expects to produce copper in the range of 340-370 kt. Nickel output will likely come between 160 kt and 175 kt.

Vale's Peer Performances

Rio Tinto Group RIO reported iron ore shipments (on a 100% basis) of 70.7 million tons (Mt) for the first quarter of 2025, a 9% decline year over year. This was the lowest first-quarter shipment volume for the company since 2019, when it totaled 69.1 Mt. Iron ore production dipped 10% to 69.8 Mt. Both production and shipping were affected by four cyclones during the quarter.

In the first quarter, Rio Tinto’s mined copper production was 210 kt, 16% higher than the year-ago quarter. 

Taking into account the lost production due to bad weather in the first quarter, Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) to be near the lower end of its prior stated band of 323-338 Mt in 2025. The range indicates a year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3%. Rio Tinto expects copper production in the range of 780-850 kt for 2025. The company reported total copper production (mined and refined) of 792.6 kt in 2024.

BHP Group’s BHP iron ore production was flat year over year at 61.8 Mt in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended March 31, 2025). Production at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) bore the impact of Tropical Cyclone Zelia and Tropical Storm Sean. BHP’s copper output improved 10% year over year to 513.2 kt in the fiscal third quarter. 

BHP’s iron ore production guidance for fiscal 2025 remains in the band of 255-265.5 Mt. WAIO's production is likely to be in the upper half of BHP’s expectation of 250-260 Mt (282-294 Mt on a 100% basis). The company expects copper production to be within the range of 1,845-2,045 kt in fiscal 2025.

VALE Stock’s Price Performance

Shares of Vale have lost 25.3% in a year compared with the industry’s 24.9% decline.

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Vale’s Zacks Rank & a Stock to Consider

Vale currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

A better-ranked stock from the basic materials space is Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, which currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Carpenter Technology has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’ 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.95 per share, implying year-over-year growth of 46.6%. Carpenter Technology shares have surged 116% in the last year.

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