American Express (AXP) is likely to post slower revenue growth in H2 and through 2026 as tariffs fuel fears of recession, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.

The firm projects revenue growth to be at the low end of the company's 8% to 10% guidance range for 2025 as discount revenue growth is expected to remain lower compared with prior years at 6%. Revenue growth is projected to slow further to about 7% in 2026, the firm said.

Morgan Stanley raised its earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 on the back of stronger net interest margin, but the 2026 EPS outlook is still below consensus, according to the note.

The company's management has said there has been no evidence of a pull-forward in consumer spending so far this month, although the first week and a half overall is "running slightly stronger," the note said.

Morgan Stanley raised American Express' price target to $250 from $246 and maintained an equal-weight rating on the stock.

Shares of the company were down 4% in recent Monday trading.

Price: 241.26, Change: -10.05, Percent Change: -4.00